GEOGRAPHY OF THE ARCTIC 

Most nations of the Arctic, including the Arctic Ice Sheet, surround the Arctic Ocean. Russia and Canada have the largest coastlines, Greenland (DK) has a major footprint, while Finland and Sweden don't have an Arctic coastline. Russia dominates and from an economic and military perspective is developing its coastline more than the other countries. 

Politically, the area is controlled by the Arctic Council, which has eight members: Denmark, Canada, USA, Russia, Sweden, Finland, Greenland and Norway. China joined as an observer in 2013. Their role is to discuss the issues related to the Arctic development, environment and people such as the Athabaskan, Chukchi, Nenet, Evenki, Inuit, Sami, Aleut and Yupik. 

CLIMATE CHANGE - ICE MELT 

The Ice Cap is melting and this change has opened up the Northern Sea Route (NSR) - the North West and North East passages. It is expected that by 2035 the Arctic will be ice free and it is already thinning today. In September 2025 the first commercial Chinese ship traveled to European ports via the NSR in their start of a regular schedule. 

In the last 10 years the temperatures in the Arctic have increased faster than in the rest of the world. Many buildings and infrastructure built on the permafrost (the frozen ground), particularly in coastal regions, will need major renovation within the next 15-20 years. 

Fishing Rights will be an issue for all Arctic Council nations as existing fish species are moving north as the ocean cools - and fishing fleets, including from China, will follow. 

Greenland (DK), with critical raw material deposits along its coastline, has generated interest from the US as well as the French. The French Foreign Minister visited in September 2025 and a new French Consulate to Greenland will be established in 2026. The USA has a deep-water port and the Pitufik Space Base on Greenland. 

SVALBARD 

Svalbard has more polar bears than humans and is the location of the World Seed Bank, where more than 1.2 Million varieties of seeds for food crops are stored in the Global Seed Vault. It is essentially a huge safety deposit box, holding the world’s largest collection of agricultural biodiversity. 

The Treaty of Svalbard in 1920 established the Svalbard archipelago as a sovereign part of Norway, but with international access – 42 nations have research stations on the islands. Svalbard has oil, minerals, fishing and a strategic position as well as a KSAT (N) satellite station. 

ROUTES 

Russia has a 23,000 km coastline in the Arctic Ocean. An estimated 10% (or more) of Russian GDP comes from the Arctic Area. Certain domestic factions wanted to call it The North Polar Sea - The “Russian Ocean”, thus confirming their intention to dominate the area. The permafrost is melting and the Russians are restoring old Soviet bases on firm foundations (50 ports and 475 major structures in 2025). 

Russia has increased its oil and Liquified Natural Gas (LNG ) exports to China using the NSR. When ice-free the NSR will reduce shipping journey times from the Far East to Europe, and from the Pacific to the North Sea by two or three weeks compared to the six weeks it normally takes through the Suez Canal. The Kremlin wants the NSR to be a Toll Road. The Russians obtained agreement for sovereignty over a considerable segment of the Arctic Ocean Seabed when the West showed no real interest in the area. 

Vladimir Putin recently said: “The Far East and the Arctic Regions are where Russia’s future lies and there must be no delays to Arctic projects due to sanctions or external pressure”. 

As a result a 100km militarized zone has been established offshore and civilians were made to move away. In the small port of Pevek (opposite Alaska) the Russians established a floating nuclear power station which is currently powering the local port and causing some disquiet with the environmental lobby. In August 2025, China received its first Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) from a new Arctic Russian Terminal. Four more deliveries were expected in September 2025, breaking the existing sanctions from the EU and the US. 

RESOURCES - ICEBREAKERS 

The Russian icebreaker fleet consists of 40+ vessels of which 7+ are nuclear powered. Icebreakers are the lifeblood for Arctic activity and commerce and will be needed to escort ships on the NSR to support drilling rigs and fishing fleets. Russia launched a new nuclear powered icebreaker in 2024 with another three vessels planned in 2025. The USA has five to seven icebreakers, Canada has 15 to 17, and Norway has just three. Icebreakers are important for managing the EEZ of Arctic countries. 

For Canada, the Northwest Passage opens up as the ice disappears and it opens routes to Alaska and the Pacific from the US East Coast, saving 5,000 kms compared to passage through the Panama Canal. 

Arctic sovereignty issues exist between Canada and the US and Canada has always seen the North as part of their country. On a border in the Beaufort Sea the Arctic is central to national identity as the Canadian Arctic covers 40% of Canada’s territory and more than 70% of their coastline and is also home to many Canadian indigenous peoples who have inhabited this land since time immemorial. 

The US has recently realised that they underinvested in the Arctic and are busy restoring infrastructure and equipment, including an urgent program to build icebreakers. 

China has a significant interest in the Arctic and is currently involved in various projects and surveillance activities in the region. On September 3, 2025, two Chinese research vessels entered U.S. waters off the coast of Alaska, prompting the U.S. to deploy an aircraft and an icebreaker to monitor their activities. The potential to discover the fastest shipping routes to Europe, along with access to abundant minerals, metals, oil, gas, and fishing resources, aligns with China’s Polar/Arctic Silk Road Initiative, which aims to develop trade routes and expand influence in the area. 

RESOURCES AND THE SEABED COMPETITION 

All Arctic Nations have a 12 nautical mile coastal zone. The UN Law of the Sea also gives an Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of up to 200 nautical miles from their coast. The high seas outside the 12 mile zone are not restricted for shipping. The Lomonosov Ridge, as well as the North Pole, are important for strategic/mineral reasons. There are major overlaps in areas around the North Pole between Canada, Denmark, Norway and Russia. The US and Canada also have disputes. In 2024 Russia made a new submission to take over much of the claims of Canada and Denmark. 

Mining in the Arctic Ocean is currently governed by seabed ownership regulations. Although challenges remain, advancements in mining technology have made it possible to operate in offshore cold climates with temperatures as low as -50°C. 

The principal metals found in the Arctic include nickel, iron, manganese, cobalt, copper, and rare earth minerals. Many rare earth minerals identified in this region are not found on land. Some of these can be mined from readily available nodules. Extraction techniques utilizing sonic technology allow for mining without causing contamination. Robotics and autonomous underwater drones allow accurate 3D mapping of potential mineral deposits. In Canada, remote underwater crawler devices are being used in conjunction with floating platforms for efficient mining operations. 

One of the key challenges is ensuring that extraction is carried out under strict environmental and regulatory controls. Although there are existing national moratoriums that restrict mining activities, there are currently no comprehensive restrictions for the Arctic region as a whole. In addition, ten percent of the world’s oil supplies and 25% of the world’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) are found in the Arctic. It is estimated that there are 400 oil and gas fields in the Arctic Ocean. 

ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT & POLLUTION 

Expanding drilling activities poses a significant threat to wildlife, especially polar bears, as oil spills can be deadly for them. Additionally, seismic activity may disrupt communication among whales. 

A major concern in recent years is the effect of industrial pollution. The Daldykan river in Siberia turned red in 2016 when there was a leak from a nickel processing facility. Plastic and micro-plastic pollution is becoming a major problem. It is imported from the world’s oceans and not a result of Arctic activity. More activity = more pollution: - oils spills, mining damage > effect on local communities. 

THE MILITARY PERSPECTIVE 

The Russian Northern Fleet is active in the Kola peninsula. The fleet has 31 submarines, including eight that can launch nuclear missiles and 37 surface ships including one aircraft carrier. The fleet also has many aircraft and several naval infantry brigades. The Russian coastline is heavily fortified, with military bases that are either in use or being updated to handle climate change and melting permafrost. 

NATO does not have a permanent base in the Arctic and relies on its High Readiness Forces. They are setting up a Forward Land Force Brigade in Finland with 5,000 soldiers, equipped with Arctic-capable drones, and naval and air forces. NATO has also introduced a new plan for the Arctic and climate change called “Aware, Adapt, Mitigate.” They are also conducting exercises to train their forces and test their equipment in difficult conditions. 

The area between the UK, Iceland, and Greenland is crucial for watching Russian naval movements from the Kola Peninsula to the North Atlantic. 

Estimates suggest that a quarter of the world’s untapped and accessible major resources, including fishery stocks, will drive exploitation as the Arctic ice melts. The region is becoming a commercial and geo-strategic priority, which is creating both current and future challenges, which include: 

• Competition for seabed resources
• Russian control of the Northern Sea Route (NSR)
• Rights for mining, drilling, and fishing
• Russian military activity and espionage
• Chinese commercial interests
• Western military readiness
• Sovereignty of Greenland
• Environmental concerns and pollution
• Protection of indigenous populations
• The speed of climate change
• Governance in the region 

These factors will influence the dynamics of the Arctic as it undergoes significant changes.