William Sandover is an independent security adviser and before that BA’s International Risk Adviser. He reviewed the geo-political factors that underlay shooting down incidents - from KAL007 in 1983 (during the Cold War) up until Azerbaijan Airlines 8243 in December 2024 (Russia-Ukraine War) including, of course MH17 in 2014 - and how airlines seek to avoid such disasters. 

Examining a series of incidents in which civilian or non-combatant aircraft were destroyed by military forces, usually through mistaken identity during times of conflict or heightened tension, - the talk’s theme was how in modern air warfare you may not be the target but can be mistaken for one. 

Korean Air Lines Flight 007 (September 1, 1983) 

A Korean Air Lines Boeing 747 in flight from New York to Seoul via Anchorage was shot down by a Soviet Sukhoi Su-15 interceptor after straying into Soviet airspace, killing 269 people. Navigational error and Cold War tension led the Soviets to believe it was a U.S. spy plane. The speaker highlighted that paranoia, poor communication, and human error combined to cause the tragedy, prompting later U.S. reforms and the introduction of civilian GPS. 

Iran Air Flight 655 (July 3, 1988) 

An Iran Air Airbus A300 from Tehran to Dubai was shot down by the USS Vincennes over the Persian Gulf during the Iran–Iraq War, killing all 290 on board. The Vincennes mistook the airliner for an F-14 fighter. The speaker noted the U.S. later expressed regret and that misjudgment and aggression in a high-pressure environment caused the disaster. 

Siberia Airlines Flight 1812 (October 4, 2001) 

A Russian Tu-154 from Tel Aviv to Novosibirsk was accidentally shot down by the Ukrainian Air Force during an exercise, killing 78. Ukraine later admitted fault and compensated victims’ families. The missile should have self-destructed but instead locked onto the airliner. 

Baghdad Airbus A300 (November 22, 2003) 

A European Air Transport Airbus A300 cargo aircraft was hit by a missile shortly after take-off from Baghdad. Despite severe hydraulic damage the crew landed safely using only engine thrust. The captain later remarked they were lucky it was a cargo flight, avoiding a greater disaster. 

Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 (July 17, 2014) 

MH17, a Boeing 777 flight from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur, was shot down over eastern Ukraine by a Russian-made Buk missile, killing all 298 aboard. The missile came from Russia’s 53rd Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade. The speaker believed the Buk crew mistook MH17 for a Ukrainian Antonov transport. He criticised the Dutch report for focusing on technical detail rather than intent. 

Syria – Russian Il-20 (September 18, 2018) 

Syrian air defenses accidentally shot down a Russian Il-20 reconnaissance plane during an Israeli air raid. Russia blamed Israel for failing to follow deconfliction protocols. A review of the overflight risks found minimal danger at the time, though the case underscored the unpredictability of missile warfare. 

Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752 (January 8, 2020) 

A UIA Boeing 737-800 was shot down near Tehran by two Iranian missiles, killing 176 people, shortly after the U.S. killing of Qasem Soleimani. Iran later admitted it was mistaken for a hostile target. ICAO cited human error. The speaker noted lawsuits against the airline but argued that Iran bore responsibility for keeping its airspace open during military alert.

Azerbaijan Airlines Flight J2-8243 (December 25, 2024)

An Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 flying from Baku to Grozny was mistakenly shot down by Russian surface-to-air missiles near Aktau, Kazakhstan, killing 38 of 67 onboard. Russian         defenses had been targeting a Ukrainian drone amid GPS jamming and fog. After sustaining damage, the aircraft was denied landing clearance and crashed over an hour later. President Putin later admitted responsibility, citing a technical malfunction. The speaker noted strained Russia–Azerbaijan relations and questioned why the aircraft was denied landing and how it was mistaken for a drone. 

Lessons Learned 

The speaker concluded that most of these shootdowns resulted from mistaken identity rather than intent. He stressed the need for greater caution in flight routing near conflict zones. Even          deliberate attacks often stemmed from misidentification. He closed with the reflection: “You may not be the target, but better not to be mistaken for one.”